by Invarians: Roadmap Q3-Q4 2026

The on-chain calibration registry for AI agents.

A North Star is the fixed reference point navigators use. ANS is the fixed reference point agents use: per-chain nominal thresholds, versioned, verifiable: embedded into the Chainlink DON.

This page documents the calibration parameters Invarians uses today and the architecture planned for Q3-Q4 2026.
When the Invarians algorithm runs inside Chainlink Functions, each DON node embeds these parameters directly. ANS is the public registry that makes every deployed version traceable: what thresholds were used, on what data, and when they were last updated.
View Registry → How it works

01: The calibration problem

Consensus does not protect against bad calibration: it legitimizes it.

When multiple nodes compute the same regime from the same thresholds, agreement is guaranteed. But if the thresholds are wrong, every node computes the same wrong answer: in consensus. The problem is not the computation. It is the reference.

Risk 1
Calibration too sensitive
S2D2 is returned on a structurally normal network. Agents route away from L1 unnecessarily: creating artificial congestion on L2.
Risk 2
Calibration too lax
S1D1 is returned while the network is under real tension. Agents execute transactions that fail, are sandwiched, or land at unfavorable cost.
Risk 3
Post-upgrade drift
After a protocol upgrade (e.g. Pectra), historical thresholds become obsolete. Classification is systematically wrong until recalibration is triggered.
The answer
Make calibration verifiable
Any agent should be able to inspect what version of calibration produced an attestation, when it was last updated, and on how much data it is based. That is what ANS provides.

02: Calibration registry

Per-chain nominal thresholds, openly published.

Each chain has its own τ (structural) and π (demand) thresholds. Calibration version, data basis, and last update date are published for each.

Ethereum
● Certified
✓ τ: structural (M1: 5.05) ✓ π: demand (M1: 5.05) ✓ Beacon participation
Polygon
● Certified
✓ τ: structural (M1: 8.06) ✓ π: demand (M1: 8.06)
Solana
⚠ Partial
✓ τ: structural ⚠ σ: proxy v1 (M1: 0.37) ⚠ tx_count unavailable
Avalanche
⚠ Partial
⚠ M1: 0.07: insufficient ⚠ Dimensions not certified
Arbitrum
⚠ Low confidence
✓ τ threshold: >1.15 ✓ π threshold: >1.20 ⚠ τ dormant in current data ⚠ 7 days data only
Base
⚠ Low confidence
✓ τ threshold: >1.05 ✓ π threshold: >1.10 ⚠ 7 days data only ⚠ Event calibration pending
Optimism
⚠ Low confidence
✓ τ threshold: >1.05 ✓ π threshold: >1.06 ⚠ 7 days data only ⚠ Event calibration pending
Bridge
◌ Phase 2C
BS1/BS2 calibration Expected ~2026-04-22
Calibration v2 P90-P95 thresholds Updated 2026-03-22  ·  M1 = metric stability score. Certified = M1 ≥ 1.0. Partial = M1 < 1.0 or proxy signal.

03: How ANS will work

Calibration as a versioned, traceable process: not a static parameter.

Invarians continuously refines its calibration parameters as new data accumulates and chain behavior evolves. With the Chainlink DON integration (Q3-Q4 2026), ANS becomes the on-chain registry that tracks every version of parameters deployed inside Chainlink Functions.

01
Drift detection
Invarians monitors signal distributions continuously. When a post-upgrade event occurs or a distribution shift is detected, calibration is flagged for review.
02
New thresholds computed: new calibration version
Updated thresholds are calculated from refreshed signal distributions, validated against historical events, and assigned a new version number with date, data basis, and M1 stability score.
03
ANS publishes the new version
The new calibration version is published in this registry: openly, with full history. Previous versions remain accessible and are never overwritten. Any agent or protocol can inspect what changed and why.
04
New Chainlink Function deployed with updated parameters
The Invarians algorithm is redeployed inside Chainlink Functions with the new calibration parameters embedded. Each DON node runs the updated version independently and reaches consensus on the new thresholds.
05
Agents verify which version is running
Every Invarians attestation carries the calibration version that produced it. Any agent can cross-reference this version against ANS to verify the data basis, date, and M1 score: and decide whether it meets its own risk parameters before acting.
Every Invarians attestation carries calibration: { version } in its payload. ANS is the registry that makes that version field meaningful: not just a number, but a verifiable, dated, documented reference.

04: ANS and Invarians

Invarians certifies the state. ANS certifies the reference.

Two distinct layers, designed to be independent. An agent can trust the attestation and still verify the reference it was built on.

Invarians
Certified execution context
Classifies the structural regime of each chain (S1D1 → S2D2) over a ~1h window, computes divergence from nominal, and returns a signed attestation. The agent knows in what structural regime the chain is operating.
AgentNorthStar
The calibration reference
Publishes what "nominal" means for each chain: the thresholds that define S1 vs S2, D1 vs D2. Versioned, dated, openly consultable. The agent knows what the reference was built on.
ANS is not a product of Invarians' decision-making: it is the transparent documentation of Invarians' calibration methodology. Any protocol integrating Invarians can rely on ANS to answer the question: "who controls calibration, and how?"

The reference agents navigate by

Invarians certifies the state.
You own the decision.

Live execution context across L1, L2, and bridge. Regime, divergence, structural state: signed and verifiable.

Live Context → API Docs invarians.com